Monday, December 29, 2008

Are We Seeing A Repeat Of 1929?

By Don Bethune

Partially because of the rapid growth in telecommunications and Information Technology we have seen growth parameters including the GDP rising continuously during the 1990's any beyond. While economic indicators are naturally cyclical, the recent sharp declines on the global scale have far exceeded the expectations of economic experts analysts. In Asia as well as Europe and the USA these declines have been the steepest since 1929.

The criticality of the current world financial situation has indicated a strong need to strengthen and perhaps reinvent our existing economic and financial models and practices. The financial rescue, or bailout if you prefer, packages put in place just recently initially did little to stop the plunge in stock indexes. Admittedly it will take some time to tell if these financial aids will have the desired effect of turning the USA and global economies around.

It seems strange that the collapse of several major financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers came as such a surprise. Hindsite shows that there were plenty of danger signals which if heeded may have prevented this major problem. The business model of Lehman Brothers, their lending practices, and their operating practices, if attended to and revised at an earlier time may have saved the company and kept employees and shareholders holding a bag containing precious little.

The question arises here is how long and how many times a country or banks would be able to prevent these debacle? Is our strategy of investment or portfolio being adopted is healthy enough to promise a sustainable growth rate. Surprisingly the recent G7 meeting couldn't find out feasible solutions.

Ironically at the present juncture economies like China and US who always stand Back to Back have without joining their had are trying their level best to save their economy which in turn, though un-intentional is helping other countries to recover from the same.

Financial rescue packages will not necessarily help the investor in the short term except perhaps to put a brake on the losses. Assuming it will take some time for financlial institutions and other affected organizations to get their houses in order, the investor must review his or her own investment strategies in hopes of regaining a pattern of sustainable growth.

The small investor having been burned by the recent slide will no doubt be very cautious as to when and where to invest any additional money. And well he should be until the political leaders of the countries most involved get together and put in place practices designed not only to reverse the current situation to prevent it from happening again.

We may feel sometimes that a plunge in the stock market affects only the major stockholders, the "big boys". It is not always apparent that a decline in the stock market means that companies issuing stock suddenly find themselves with insufficient capital to meet their goals. The results can mean decreased production, lower wages, and lost jobs. Eventually these negatives can and will affect the average citizen. As a part of any recovery package the average citizen needs to be educated as to what the big picture means to him or her.

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